THE MODEL ROOM / WORLD SOCCER
Every outcome counts.
Domestic leagues, from the top flight to the lower divisions. Men and women, kept separate.
Loading…
| League | Holdout matches | Model log loss ↓ | Baseline ↓ | Market: model / market ↓ | Brier ↓ | Draw forecast / actual |
|---|
Each month is forecast using only earlier results. Lower log loss and Brier scores are better. The baseline uses historical home/draw/away frequencies. Where closing odds exist, model and market comparisons use the same available matches, with the bookmaker margin removed. New or thinly covered leagues may have short holdouts.
Independent models, shared methodEvery league has separate attack, defence and home-advantage ratings, with a fitted correction for low-scoring draws. Four years of results are weighted toward recent matches. Men's ratings are never reused for women's competitions. ESPN history excludes matches decided after extra time or penalties where a regulation result is not safely available; this can underrepresent playoff matches.
These are pregame forecasts. Live scores do not change them. Lineups, injuries, red cards and shot-based xG are not inputs. A score estimate is the single most likely score, which can differ from the most likely overall outcome. No betting profitability is implied.
| Country | League | Tier | Schedule | Model | History through |
|---|
Prices are comparisons only, never model inputs. Kalshi quotes open near kickoff, so most qualifiers sit in the watchlist until then. No betting profitability is implied.